Probabilistic System Downtime and Economic Value
In Shell UK Bert developed analytical descriptions of the probability of irregular downtimes of systems subject to random failure and repair of associated components. The models were used to support decisions for over-design and spare capacity of Shell oil and gas production facilities.
In 1985 Bert was made responsible for assessment of the economic value of offshore oil and gas field developments in Shell UK's southern North Sea sector. He introduced a method for accounting for uncertainty in the Net Present Value due to variability in future oil and gas prices, in amounts of oil and gas reserves and in investment costs.
 | Brouwers, J.J.H. (1986). Probabilistic Descriptions of Irregular System Downtime. Reliability Engineering, 15(4), 263-281. |